Building trust instead of fueling fears: A plea for evidence-based security policy

On March 26, the Schleswig-Holstein Bar Association hosted this year's panel discussion in Kiel. Under the title „Distorted Perception of Internal Security,“ renowned experts discussed the tension between actual and perceived crime.

The panel consisted of:

  • Professor Thomas Feltes, lawyer and police scientist
  • Professor Thomas Kliche, educational researcher, political scientist, and psychologist
  • Jan Kürschner (Alliance 90/The Greens), member of the Schleswig-Holstein state parliament, chair of the Committee on Internal Affairs and Law, and specialist lawyer for criminal law
  • Steffen Russ, Head of the International Cooperation Department at the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), responsible for police crime statistics and research into unreported crime, among other things

Burkhard Plemper, sociologist, journalist, and former host of the NDR program „Redezeit,“ once again served as moderator.

Between statistics and sentiment

„Germany is a safe country,“ emphasized Steffen Russ, referring to the latest crime statistics. However, statistics alone are not enough to explain the population's sense of security. This is because the perceived level of crime often differs significantly from the actual level of danger—a circumstance that is increasingly influencing political and social dynamics.

Professor Dr. Thomas Feltes also noted an extreme contradiction between perceived security and actual events. Some countries are already talking about „German Angst.“.

The study „Security and Sense of Security“ from Bochum provides a particularly impressive example of this: while only a tiny proportion of respondents had actually been victims of robbery, many said they feared it in the coming year—in some cases with an expectation that was 50 times higher than the actual probability. This exaggerated need for security has a direct impact on political decision-making processes and voting behavior.

Read here the Follow-up report on the use of AI in the legal advice market.

Politics between emotion and facts

Jan Kürschner advocated making political decisions based on facts while also taking subjective fears into account. „Politicians must take people's feelings seriously – but they must not be guided by them alone.“

Professor Dr. Thomas Kliche saw the public perception of internal security as a complex psychological and political problem. Media events such as terrorist attacks could disproportionately increase fears and awaken a desire for absolute security—a demand that cannot be met. Populist forces deliberately exploited these dynamics to suggest simple answers to complex challenges.

Stereotypes and social projection

A key topic was the media and political focus on crime committed by foreigners. According to Professor Dr. Feltes, many people's fears have increasingly concentrated on this area in recent years – regardless of the actual crime situation. Studies such as those conducted by R+V Versicherung have shown that social fears, e.g., of poverty or needing long-term care, are much more widespread among the population than the fear of crime – and yet the latter is emotionalized and exploited for political purposes.

Kürschner pointed to the high proportion of non-German suspects in certain areas of crime, such as knife attacks, where the proportion is around 45 percent—compared to a population share of around 10 percent. This phenomenon should not be ignored, but must be viewed in a differentiated manner.

In this context, Russ emphasized the importance of demographic factors: Age, social status, and access to society are more decisive than origin. Young men—regardless of their origin—represent the largest group of perpetrators and victims. However, the polarization of the debate often prevents a differentiated, fact-based view.

Strengthening trust in the state

Professor Dr. Kliche also saw the growing fear of crime as a sign of deeper social uncertainty. With every crisis, he said, there is a growing desire for authoritarian leadership, strong statehood, and isolation from foreigners. These developments weaken not only social cohesion but also democracy. Populist information channels on the internet further reinforce these tendencies.

Professor Dr. Feltes also warned of the increasing loss of trust in the rule of law. Many citizens feel that institutions are failing. The best protection against this is not symbolic politics, but effective crime prevention and a functioning social environment in which people feel safe and integrated.

Local prevention as the key

This is where Russ comes in with the ELSA tool developed by the BKA—an evidence-based local security analysis that helps municipalities identify hot spots and take targeted action. Aspects such as urban planning, school structures, and community life have a demonstrable influence on the development of crime and the sense of security.

Both Professor Dr. Feltes and Russ advocated strengthening municipal structures, promoting neighborhood networks, and establishing the police more firmly as local points of contact.

Conclusion

The evening made it clear that the debate on internal security is much more than a discussion about numbers. It is about trust, social cohesion, and political responsibility. Facts alone are not enough—nor is giving in to irrational fears. What is crucial is a sober, evidence-based approach to the causes of insecurity—and a strengthening of democratic resilience at all levels of society.

If you would like advice on this topic from a notary in advance, you can find it on the Internet at https://notar.de/ the right contact person. You can also visit the online consumer portal of the Chamber of Notaries at https://ratgeber-notar.de/.